Area setting bolls this year was reported at 13 percent, compared with an average of 15 percent.The U.S. cotton crop for 2010 was revised upward this month and is now projected at 18.3 million bales, 10 percent above the June projection and 50 percent above the two-decade-low 2009 crop. An increase in planted area estimated in the June Acreage report (see table 11) provided half of this month’s adjustment. The other half of the increase was attributable to the favorable crop conditions to date in the Southwest region. As a result, a lower abandonment and higher yield are forecast in July as compared with June.

Based on the June Acreage report, U.S. producers indicated that they had planted or intended to plant 10.9 million acres to cotton in 2010, about 4 percent above the March Prospective Plantings report and the highest in 4 years. While planted area is estimated 19 percent above 2009, harvested area is projected 38 percent higher as beneficial crop conditions are expected to reduce abandonment. Nationally, U.S. abandonment for 2010 is projected at about 5 percent, less than half the historical average. Consequently, 2010 abandonment is forecast at about 0.5 million acres, compared with last season’s 1.6 million acres or 18-percent rate.

Upland cotton area increased across each region of the Cotton Belt for 2010, ranging from 13 percent to 40 percent higher than last season. The Southwest region rose more than 700,000 acres in 2010 to about 6 million. Perhaps even more important than higher planted area is the likelihood that low abandonment will raise Southwest harvested area by 50 percent from 2009. The Southeast is estimated to have planted 2.5 million acres, or more than 600,000 acres higher than in 2009. The Delta has planted about 1.9 million acres, compared with a historical low of only 1.6 million acres in 2009.

Meanwhile, upland area in the West is forecast to rise after 5 consecutive years of decline. In 2010, the region has planted an estimated 345,000 acres, nearly 100,000 acres above 2009. In addition, extra-long staple plantings most of which are in the West are projected at 209,000 acres, nearly 50 percent more than a year ago and the highest ELS area in 3 seasons.

As of early July, the 2010 U.S. cotton crop is progressing near its average while conditions are much improved. Overall, 56 percent of cotton area was squaring as of July 4th, compared with the 5-year average of 55 percent. Area setting bolls this year was reported at 13 percent, compared with an average of 15 percent.

Meanwhile, U.S. cotton crop conditions are well above both last season and the 5- year average. As of July 4th, 65 percent of the U.S. area was rated “good” or “excellent,” compared with only 42 percent last season. As mentioned earlier, conditions in the Southwest are favorable this season and, as of early July, crop conditions in the Southwest are at their best since 1994. These conditions support the lower U.S. abandonment and higher yield forecast in July.

As of early July, the 2010 U.S. cotton crop is progressing near its average while conditions are much improved. Overall, 56 percent of cotton area was squaring as of July 4th, compared with the 5-year average of 55 percent. Area setting bolls this year was reported at 13 percent, compared with an average of 15 percent. Meanwhile, U.S. cotton crop conditions are well above both last season and the 5- year average. As of July 4th, 65 percent of the U.S. area was rated “good” or “excellent,” compared with only 42 percent last season. As mentioned earlier, conditions in the Southwest are favorable this season and, as of early July, crop conditions in the Southwest are at their best since 1994. These conditions support the lower U.S. abandonment and higher yield forecast in July.

Cotton Demand and Stocks Revised for 2010/11; Unchanged for 2009/10 As the beginning of 2010/11 approaches, projections of demand for the upcoming season were increased along with the sizable gain expected in supply. In July, total U.S. cotton demand was forecast at 17.7 million bales, nearly 2 million bales above the 2009/10 estimate. While U.S. mill use was increased 100,000 bales (3 percent) this month to 3.4 million bales—the same as in 2009/10 exports were raised 800,000 bales (6 percent) to 14.3 million—2 million bales above 2009/10.

Strong foreign demand and continued tight world supplies are projected to boost the U.S. share of world trade. With the United States accounting for about half of the 2010/11 increase in global production, the U.S. share of world trade is expected to rise to nearly 39 percent, slightly above the 2007-09 average. Similarly, the U.S. share of global consumption is expected to rise slightly in 2010/11. As 2009/10 draws to a close, U.S. cotton disappearance (exports plus mill use) is accounting for approximately 13.5 percent of world consumption, the lowest in over 2 decades. In 2010/11, however, the projection for increased U.S. demand is expected to push this share to about 15 percent, similar to the 2006-2008 seasons.

Based on the latest supply and demand estimates, 2010/11 stocks are expected to rise from 2.9 million bales when the season starts on August 1, 2010, to 3.5 million bales at season’s end. Just as actual stocks are projected to rise slightly in 2010/11, the stocks-to-use ratio is also forecast to increase from 18.5 percent in 2009/10 to nearly 20 percent in 2010/11. Meanwhile, farm prices for 2010/11 are likely to exceed the 2009/10 estimate. Upland prices are projected to range between 60 and 74 cents per pound in 2010/11, compared with a 62.5-cent average estimated for 2009/10.
POST: 2025-04-20